Statistics don't lie - why the PAP will win BIG for GE2020 - Alvinology

Statistics don’t lie – why the PAP will win BIG for GE2020

Statistics don’t lie.

For this reason alone, one can boldly predict the People’s Action Party (PAP) will win BIG for the Singapore General Elections 2020 (GE2020). In fact, they may even make a clean sweep, taking back the previously Workers’ Party (WP)-held wards of Hougang Single Member Constituency (SMC) and Aljunied Group Representation Constituency (GRC).

Over the span of human civilisation, it has been empirically proven that voters will lean towards the incumbent ruling party in times of crisis. There is no worse crisis than the current COVID-19 pandemic-turned-economic-recession, which is definitely in PAP’s favour.

Take the September 11 attacks in the United States in 2011 for instance. Then US President George Bush began his presidency with ratings near 60%. Following the 9-11 attacks, a national crisis ensued and polls showed approval ratings greater than 85%, peaking in at 92%, and a steady 80–90% approval for about four months after the attacks. That’s a whopping 32% difference if you compare his rating at the beginning of term to his peak after the crisis.

Back to Singapore. PAP won 60.1% of the popular votes in 2011 and 69.9% in 2015. If we apply that 32% increase in approval ratings to either, you’d get 92.1% and over 100% respectively!

Perhaps these figures are too dramatic and too far away from home. Or, perhaps not.

Let’s look to Asia and a nearer timeline – the recently concluded South Korean elections.

Earlier in April, Bloomberg reported that South Korean President Moon Jae-in’s ruling coalition scored the largest parliamentary election victory since the end of military-backed rule more than three decades ago, signaling to global leaders that a strong pandemic response can win votes. The ruling Democratic Party of Korea and its satellite group won 180 places in the 300-seat National Assembly, according to data from South Korea’s election commission.

President Moon’s approval rating shot up from 42% to 57% during the COVID-19 crisis — a considerable difference of 15%. Again, add this difference to PAP’s popular vote in GE2011 and GE2015. The results are 75.1% and 84.9% respectively.

Even if you were to take the best performing opposite ward, Hougang SMC and add on a 15% swing to PAP, they go from 42.3% in GE2015 and 37.9% in GE2011 to 57.3% and 52.9% respectively.

Sorry to burst the bubbles of all the opposition supporters. The PAP is going to win big in the election and it is likely even Hougang will be wiped out.

14 comments
  1. u didnt factor in the fact that people are working from home for months prior to the elections this time and have lots of time to consider different opinions online. real experts don’t just study 10 years’ series.

  2. Who is this Katherine Goh ? Please do not publish anymore political commentaries based on your meagre understanding of statistics. Alas, someone’s making a fool of herself.

  3. Ge 202 result is out – Opposition gains highest since independence .I hope 60% for ruling party is landslide victory u are talking about . what joke!. get real loser. U were wrong. We singaporean cannot be brainwashed by these subconscious propaganda article to change the norm

  4. GE 2020 results : PAP lost 10% , Opposition on 2 major GRCs and 1 SMC . Many areas close contest winning hair;s margin. U call this landslide victory. U were wrong U pap idiot , obviously pap idiot wrote this article to sway voter sentiments before the General elections. Too bad it backfired when people reading these articles had a “freak fear” of 100% opposition wipeout.

  5. got it way off-target!
    Fking rubbish and not worth to cite..!so call experts use to induce their thoughts into Yr subconscious mind.You guys got to praise him for his sleuth work. Without such articles to make you think harder the results may just be what he said. By saying it early, he makes people act against the norm.

    foolish to compare social media era with current social media age the world has changed since 15 years ago. yr prediction has gone epic wrong. General election 2020 result just out – major improvement for all opposition and making inroads.

  6. South Korea handled the covid with success while pap botched it. know the difference. election just over – Now PAP result like 2011 , worst in its history .

  7. I wonder how much is Katherine goh being paid to prostitute herself to pap for making a fool of herself

  8. Katherine Goh’s article “statistics don’t lie” and the content therein leaves much to be desired. She cited South Korea President Moon’s rise in popularity rating because of his handling of the COVID-19 epidemic and that it will
    similarly happen in our GE. South Korea might have handled the pandemic well but can we say the same for the PAP 4G Task Force. In fact, Min Joe Teo handling of the Foreign Workers and the dormitory crisis was an unmitigated disaster no matter how much the mainstream media and PM try to spin it.

    Just to write that the PAP will have an electoral sweep based on the South Korea experience is a fallacy from the word go.

    What is the basis of her writing that Hougang is going to fall to the PAP? Statistical modelling, polling, ground research etc. No evidence of any of that. All she wrote was to look at South Korea and the same will happen in our GE.

    Her article ends with this.
    “Sorry to burst the bubbles of all the opposition supporters. The PAP is going to win big in the election and it is likely even Hougang will be wiped out”

    The only bubble burst here is her credibility and ego. Next time, do your own serious research and not just rely on a single article.

    1. dont act smart now turn out what result since GE is over.Sorry to burst yr bubble. u compare north Korea ? come on . korea handled the crisis well while PAP screwed it up . Worst is the crisis could had been entirely be averted if u had closed entry to foreigners and by shipping the infected ones out but they didnt put in effort in that stage .

  9. crisis in 2001 (9/11) helped PAP gather 75% . Difference is 9/11 never happened on our shores. And the imagination of the voter went wild in 2001 resulted in freak win for PAP ( Also note that in those times its always walkover for PAP).

    But covid 2019 crisis happened on our shores. And u never considered the fact that in 2001 there was no social media. Now there is. If any politcial parties want to capitalize on crisis ( mistake: using old traditional mindset of demonizing rivals through mouthpiece TV, news media) so will hundreds of thousands out there who now have a free hand on information world of social media that defies the traditional media 24/7 .

    U also never considered the fact that South Korea and some other countries like new zealand and Taiwan’s performance in covid handling.. Despite their ruling parties not having majority in parliament or multi million dollar paid politicians, they were able to keep covid under control .

    Third but most impactful factor, the non existence of physical rallies during the covid period made people scour social media and online resources for election news.

    Stupid PAP did was caught with “pants down” this time.

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